Cameron set for No 10
Friday, April 30, 2010 Well, that was interesting - the best of the three debates, by far. For the first time I didn't zap to another channel after 30 minutes of turgid "debate". It helped that Have I Got News For You wasn't on, but I even forgot about the football.
The setting - in the Great Hall of the University of Birmingham - was impressive, and that helped as well. It added a sense of grandeur, which made it more of an event. I don't know if it's a question of budget, but the BBC always stages this sort of thing better than its rivals.
By comparison, last week's debate on Sky News looked like it was held a broom cupboard. The ITV set wasn't much better. I have read that the backstage facilities in Birmingham weren't as good as Bristol or Manchester but, as a viewer, I'd rather see the money on screen, as it were.
Anyway, back to the debate. There is no doubt that Cameron won, and I say that as someone who is not the Conservative leader's greatest fan. He seemed far more relaxed than in previous weeks, and got stronger as the debate wore on. I still think that much of what he said was bland and over-rehearsed but, overall, he was calm and polished and his final statement was the best of the bunch.
Clegg started strongly, I thought. As before, he used his hands to add some urgency to what he was saying, and he sounded more passionate than his rivals. After a while, though, these mannerisms began to annoy me. I began to think, "This is an act".
Slowly, as Lib Dem policies on immigration and the euro unravelled before our eyes, so too did Clegg's man-of-the-people act. He started to sweat and "err". When he tried to bully Cameron to answer a question ("Yes or no? Yes or no?") he came across as petulant and un-prime ministerial. His concluding speech - emphasising the word "YOU" over and over again - was sheer ham.
What can one say about Gordon Brown? He looked terrible, for a start, exuding a ghostly pallor. At times he sounded quite authoritive (as you should if you've occupied the two most important offices of state for 13 years). But as Cameron pointed out, there was a desperation to his words.
The quicker Brown is put out of his misery the better - for us, and for him. Seriously, I wish the soon-to-be ex-prime minister a long hot summer on the beach with Sarah and the boys - somewhere a long, long way from here (Mauritius, perhaps) where he can grieve quietly for the end of his political career.
So, where do we go from here? I don't think last night's debate will make a huge difference (the first debate was the "game changer") but there are six days to go until polling day and that is enough, I think, for the Conservatives to consolidate their lead and get a slim majority. (A few weeks ago I predicted a majority of 20-30 seats and although it seems unlikely now, I am sticking with it.)
I suspect that between now and May 6 the Tories' popularity (if that's the right word) will increase slightly, and the Lib Dems' will fall back a bit.
Labour? There will always be millions of hard core Labour supporters who cannot, for all manner of reasons, bring themselves to vote for anyone else. We saw it the other day with Gillian Duffy. Mrs Duffy, a lifelong Labour voter, had just been insulted by a Labour prime minister but, when asked, she said she wouldn't vote for anyone else. If push comes to shove, she just won't vote.
And that, I predict, is what will happen. Many Labour voters will simply stay at home.
So, if he avoids any serious gaffes (and he will because Cameron's campaign has been a model of, er, conservatism), Call Me Dave will be in No 10 this time next week. And Gordon will be gone.
Reader Comments (5)
Crikey, Simon missing "football"? What's the world coming to?
I too thought it was a marvellous show by Cameron, he won on all points, and spoke the truth about real policies, not spin, which is all Clegg tends to do and Brown "tries" to do.
As I have said all along, we will win an outright majority of between 35 and 60 seats next week.
I also thought that Dimbleby did a great job, much better than the previous two weeks on ITV and Sky.
I just feel these three are fighting over who'l be Captain before the ship sinks.
But Capt Cameron might at least try.
Nearer my god to me.........
Nearer my god to me.........
glug glug glug.
Peter -
Putting the duelling pistols down for one moment, I DO hope that if/when Cameron becomes PM he appreciates TWO things:
a) The APPALLING danger that this country and its people are in right now (on every front), and
b) The AMAZING opportunity he has to DO something about it (though it won't be easy, I know).
All the rest is just 'noise' in the marketplace........
PS:
And let's hope he allows 'marketing guru' Steve Hilton to take his 'Green' and 'Progressive' policy ideas somewhere else (preferably, the North Sea).
Christ, I wouldn't like to be Cameron's shoes when he does take over.
If Europe think they have a difficult job clearing up the mess that Greece is in, it is mere child's play to the mess that Gordon's left our country in.
Yep - a Poisoned Chalice, indeed !
And, five minutes into office, with the economy going South, it'll ALL be 'because-of-the-Tories'.
Back to 1980 we go......................