Writing from Brighton, where the Conservatives are holding their final conference before the election, Iain Dale discusses the challenge facing David Cameron in the wake of a poll that suggests a lead of just two per cent over Labour (See HERE.)
Two per cent? How has it come to this? Faced with one of the least-loved prime ministers of all time, a great clunking fist of a man with the charm and charisma of a wet weekend in Glenrothes, Cameron's Conservatives should be looking forward to a landslide victory. Instead there is talk of a hung parliament, a coalition government - even (heaven forbid) a Labour victory.
As someone who has never voted for any party other than the Conservatives, I have listened to a succession of Tory spokesmen with mounting exasperation. In particular, if I hear the word "change" one more time (and I'm sure I will because they have been programmed to say it as often as possible) I will "thcream and thcream until I'm thick", to quote Violet Elizabeth Bott.
This morning, during the paper review on Sunday AM (BBC1), Andrew Marr quoted someone who suggested that Cameron is approaching the general election as if he was holding a priceless Ming vase. In other words, very cautiously, in order not to trip up.
It's true. "Dave" is so desperate not to offend anyone (including people who will never vote for the Tories anyway) he's become a pale shadow of a political leader and the party has been bled dry of any personality.
I still don't understand what Cameron - and the party he leads - actually stands for. Oh, I've heard all that guff about getting Big Government off our backs. But where is the detail? What are they actually going to do?
On Friday, as readers of this blog know, a former landlord was sent to jail for six months for the "crime" of allowing people to smoke in his own property and failing to pay a £3,000 fine. I understand that Cameron cannot condone law-breaking, but he can condemn the law that has been broken. Instead, when he was asked whether he would amend the smoking ban, he allegedly, and facetiously, replied, "I don't smoke." Well, not any more. (See HERE.)
Perhaps he thought he was being funny. Well, it's not funny that as a result of an unnecessarily draconian piece of legislation (which could be amended within months, if Cameron saw fit), an otherwise law-abiding citizen is currently in jail.
Excessive use of speed cameras; increasing use of CCTV cameras; restrictions on this, health warnings on that ... what are the Tories really going to do about it?
"Broken Britain" should include the impact of the smoking ban on community pubs and clubs. But no, backstreet boozers and working mens' clubs don't fit into the New Labour/Cameron's Conservatives' vision of the future.
When the Tories talk of "change", what does that mean? Can they be specific? Of course not, because that would risk alienating certain groups. Instead, we get a bunch of meaningless platitudes. Well, I'm sick of it.
Do they think we're stupid? I'm a natural Conservative, for heaven's sake, yet the only reason I will vote Conservative in 2010 is because I want Labour out and the Tories are the only viable alternative.
The majority of people however are not natural Conservatives and they need rather more reason to make them vote for the party (as opposed to one of the opposition parties).
Time is running out for Cameron. He has a few more weeks (if that) before Brown calls an election. Like many other people I want to know exactly what I'm voting for. At present, it looks like more of the same (slightly diluted, perhaps).
That's not good enough. I need to know that a Cameron government has the heart (and the will) to tackle Big Government and genuinely roll back the frontiers of the state, and before the election I want the Tories to list half a dozen specific policies that will confirm their good intentions and will be implemented within 100 days of achieving office.
I still think the Tories will win the election with a majority of 20-30 seats, but the longer this campaign drags on I believe it will be in spite of, not because of, David Cameron's luke-warm and soporific leadership.
Here's a different analogy. I believe that David Cameron is suffering from the same problem that afflicts many sportsmen when they are in sight of the prize.
Take Andy Murray. In the really big, career-defining matches - against Roddick at Wimbledon last year, and against Federer in the US Open final in 2008 and again in Australia this year - Murray has played a conservative game in the hope that his opponent will make more mistakes than him.
It doesn't work like that. They say that fortune favours the brave, and it's true in sport as in life. In boxing a challenger has to clearly defeat the champion in order to win the fight, otherwise the champion keeps the title. Playing it safe very rarely works.
In boxing parlance, if Cameron is to win the election with a working majority there has to be a significant difference between the leading parties or, metaphorically speaking, he has to knock out his opponent. And he can't do that by sitting on the fence.