Politics and polling
Monday, June 8, 2009 A week ago Iain Dale highlighted an extraordinary poll commissioned by the League Against Cruel Sports. The question was so heavily loaded it is hard to understand how it was approved by YouGov, who conducted the survey. See HERE.
This morning, hours before MPs are due to debate further tobacco controls in the House of Commons, the Daily Telegraph reminded us that "A YouGov poll of 3,330 people for Action on Smoking and Health, an anti-smoking group, found that 65 per cent supported a ban on vending machines".
The poll was conducted in February last year and published on 30 June 2008 to coincide with the first anniversary of the public smoking ban in England. The key findings were published in an ASH document bizarrely entitled Nor Shall My Sword Sleep In My Hand: Tobacco Policy and Public Opinion in the UK. (Who do they think they are? Jonathan Aitken?!) See HERE.
There is nothing to suggest that the questions, or the context in which they were set, were "loaded" like the League Against Cruel Sports survey. Later in the year however I questioned the relationship between Peter Kellner, president of YouGov, and ASH and argued that "there should be a clear distinction between a campaign group such as ASH and an independent polling organisation like YouGov". That distinction, I wrote, had become blurred.
Judge for yourselves HERE.
Reader Comments (13)
I have recently signed up with YouGov and have found that when I have been asked for my opinions on one issue others haven't and vice versa. Is it possible that YouGov can pick and choose who they send the questionnaires to?
Off topic I know, but I find it interesting that what was classed as a 'fringe party', UKIP, came second in the share of votes for the EU parliament. In their manifesto UKIP declare their intention to amend the smoking ban so perhaps as well as attracting Eurosceptics, this party is attracting the smoking vote? At any rate their stance hasn't done them any harm in the ballot box.
Yes, Ali, we smokers promised we would fight back. The only way open to us was via the ballot box. Previous to the smoking ban, I had no interest in politics. My huge anger made me look at the political parties available. I found UKIP, became a member, stood for the local council elections and enlightened local UKIP committee and core members regarding the lies of the corrupt antismoking brigade.
I am not the only smoker who took this path.
Having said that, UKIP had also done very well in the last EU election. which was before the smoking ban.
What is outstanding in this present election was the curruption surrounding the design of the ballot sheet which placed the UKIP name almost out of sight and the shambollic way the count was conducted, The creation of innumerable very small fringe parties of a similar nature to UKIP also split what could have been a UKIP vote - and needs investigation as to their true origin and funding. .
The EU backed establishment which consists of the leaders of the three main parties and control of the media has, however, shot itself in the foot by creating a confusion which allowed in BNP MEPs for the first time..
It is going to be a long hard difficult road back to honesty in the U.K. political system. It doesn't matter where the Tories sit in the EU parliament, the parliament itself is a sham and has no real power. Laws are made by the faceless unelected beaurocrats in Brussels. Our main political leaders cannot be expected to give up their own priviledged position on the EU gravy train no matter how they wriggle and what half promises they make.
I and millions like me will continue to fight for UKIP right up to the next General Election, no matter what lies are put in our path. If UKIP can WIN the next General Election, all UKIP MEPs would resign and the UK would be taken out of the European Union the very next day. We CAN govern ouselves and be the great independent nation we once were. We have the resources and unlike the rest of Europe we are by tradition a multicultural scoiety due to our former Empire and Commonwealth.
As Obama said, "Yes, we can.".
I have long suspected that YOUGOV were in cahoots with ZanuLabour .
I remember Kellners piece in the Grauniad about smoking entitled, "For once Freedom is not the issue".
Freedom is always the issue,you,..."dingbat".
My blood boiled.
I think the title of the ASH document shows how sanctimonious this puritanical group is. What utter arrogance.
It is this kind of self-righteous thinking that has led to the political earthquake we are seeing. I believe that UKIP did well because it has rightly attracted and deserves the smokers vote.
If anyone is to blame for the rise in support for the BNP it has to be Labour who has turned it's back on its traditional supporters and treated the old working classes with contempt.
The children and grandchildren of former mine workers, steel workers and heavy engineering workers are today's underclass. They want a voice and it apears the BNP is only party that is listening to them.
I make this plea to the Conservatives - ammend the smoking ban or you will make more room for the first BNP MP in parliament. To the illiberal Dems - you had your chance to be a real alternative for the people of Britain, you chose to cozy up with the other two main parties and you have lost out as a result.
People will turn to radical parties if the political elite treat them as children. To ASH, I say it is your fault too. If you feel that strongly about your religion, go to church not Parliament.
To alienated Labour, Conservative and Lib Dem smokers I say don't turn to the BNP. UIKP has a real chance. It is a real alternative. It works hard for your vote and doesn't dismiss your needs or your voice.
Chas,
Yes.YouGov, like any polling org, send questionnaires to those parts of their databases that fit their clients' briefs. As a panel-member, you're never told what that brief is nor who's commissioned the poll. You have to guess on the latter according to the slant of the questions.
As a low-earning non homeowner, it took me three and a bit years to accrue the necessary £50 before getting paid. A friend, whose middle-class cred is a bit higher, got invited to three of four times the number of surveys I was privy to. And I was NEVER asked my opinion on any smoking-related issues.
The opportunities for poll-manipulation are well-known, and exploited to the full. YouGov appear much too close to the forces of darkness. Kellner's reply to Dale is simply astonishing.
Dale: "Explain to me why this press release is in accord with your non political commitments under the Charities Act"
Kellner:"You are right that we are a charity, but we are also a Registered Third Party with the Electoral Commission. We conducted polling to highlight how David Cameron is out of touch with public opinion on the issue of hunting. That is right and proper for us as an organisation with a legitimate interest in that area."
I am pleased that UKIP did so well in the recent elections, but whatever has happened to their stance on tobacco control?
I know it is still in their manifesto somewhere, or at least I think it is, but in an article in the Mail this morning, stating "What UKIP want", it mentions Britain to withdraw from the EU, British jobs for British workers, increased trade with Commonwealth countries and the rest of the world, an end to unlimited immigration, to regain control of farming and fisheries policies, and a referendum on EU constitution.
No mention whatsoever of the smoking ban!
I can remember so many people on here knocking the Tories for not mentioning the smoking ban, and I have always defended them on this by saying that any party with even the slightest chance of forming a government, would be committing political suicide at the moment, by aligning themselves with the smoking movement.
As was suspected, I was berated for this and shouted down, "if the Tories won't speak up for the smoker, we won't vote for them" I was told. What now then for UKIP I ask? They scent the merest hint of power, and already they stop openly mentioning the smoking ban.
Don't get me wrong, as I have said time after time, only a fool would promise to repeal or amend or overturn the smoking ban before they are actually in power. They would be slaughtered by the other parties for even mentioning it.
The reason I have brought this up, is not to knock UKIP, as I fiercely believe that we should be out of Europe, and just like Nigel Farage says, there is nothing wrong in trading with Europe, but we should not be dominated by them or have our laws made by them, we should be free to trade all around the world with whoever we want. I agree with this 100%
I just hope that all those that knocked the Conservatives all this time for not speaking up about the smoking ban, will now see the error of their ways and realise that in politics, it is so easy to promise the earth when you are nothing more than a tiny minnow in a large pond, but as soon as that tiny minnow grows, and resembles a form of threat to the sharks that inhabit Westminster, then the jaws start opening and they zoom in for the kill. The Tories have had to live by this rule for the past 12 years, Nigel Farage is now inhabiting the same murky waters.
Nigel Farage shows his true colours by wearing an F2C What Next badge in public, and UKIP attends pro-choice events.
That is enough for me when other politicians turn their noses up disgustingly at the very thought of having to stand next to us!
Peter, I don't actually see smoker-ban repeal/amendments as being the vote-loser you suppose, as I don't believe the dodgy poll-results we've been given. Yes, it's a confidence-game and, at the moment, the forces of denormalisation aren't questioned too much by the MSM when they present their cooked stats, but the times are-a-changing. Distrust of the political class has gone mainstream thanks to the Telegraph, so now is a very good time to assert realities and show people how they're being lied to by the repugnant denormalisers.
I don't see UKIP have anything at all to lose by making a stand. It is just one of the distinctions between themselves and the Tories who are, at present, following the aspirations-not-promises Blair route to power. I'm someway to the political left of UKIP, but their strong stance against the EU and in favour of civil-liberties is absolutely what this country needs right now. Even though it's likely their Westminster vote won't match their Euro-result, they still serve as a pressure on the Tories not to drift too far away from conservative values.
UKIPs stance on the smoking ban still stands and they mention it on their Save the Pub Campaign website here:
http://www.savethepub.co.uk/ukip-pub-policy.html
Basil, I think you might have misunderstood what I was trying to say (above). I don't see any party which offers to amend the ban as being on a vote loser because of this. If this subject was openly offered in an election, as a free choice of having smoking and non smoking establishments, just as they do in Spain, then how could anyone with an ounce of democracy in them be against it?
But, as we all know, the Labour party is not about democracy, they are even knocking the Conservatives for suggesting spending more money (in real terms) on the NHS. So what do you think they would do, if any party openly said they would amend the ban if they got in power? They would crucify them, they would tell their usual bunch of evil lies about how this party doesn't care about our children's health, how it would kill 10 million children a year if ever it came to power, etc., etc..
I don't know if anyone saw it, but there was an article on last night's London news about the poisonous fumes inhaled by everyone, especially children, on or near our roads in London, and how many children are being affected by it.
It is terrible if it is true, but everything we hear or read now, has to be taken with a large pinch of salt. The government and their advisors troll out these figures on an almost daily basis now.
This is exactly what I was trying to put across earlier. They come up with more "facts & figures" and the gullible public believe almost everything they read or see on TV, so saying the ban should be amended, in my point of view is a definite no-no, until that party is in power.
I take your point about not scaring the horses Peter... and I do trust conservative instincts more than I do socialist ones [not saying much]... but the Tories have made a commitment to repeal the hunting-ban. That's a very divisive issue and one that provokes a lot of class-hatred, playing up to the Tory Toffs stereotype. Team Dave obviously feel that any damage to their putative vote-share will be marginal and that the gain's worth the pain.
So why not make a similarly firm stand to allow pubcos and landlords to determine their own smoking policies? Not a difficult one to sell, especially when armed with pub closure-figures post ban.
As with hunting, a few votes would be lost to the Illiberal-Dems, a few would be gained from UKIP. But it would bring meaning and substance to the Tory rhetoric about decentralising power and enabling choice.
I know the Conservatives have made a commitment to repeal the hunting-ban Basil, but that is a whole different ball game to the smoking ban isn't it? Labour have let the whole country down so badly regarding the NHS and the only way they are going to be seen as a party that cares, is by saying they are safeguarding the nation's health with the smoking ban.
They can come up with their sets of twisted figures every other day, showing the illiterate masses how many children are being killed and harmed through selfish smoker's second hand smoke, proving beyond a doubt that they do care after all. Whereas on the other hand, what can they say about fox-hunting? As far as I know, no children can be harmed by a few men and women in hunting pink chasing a fox through the countryside on a Sunday morning, can they? And as we all know, a large majority of those who are against hunting, are nothing more than cranks, the type who would rather see a child die of some terrible disease than help save them by allowing experiments on animals which could help save thousands.
The Britain we live in today is dominated by Labour's political correctness, people are scared to say what they actually believe in any more. Do you know, just last weekend, my wife and I visited her mother, and whilst there, I asked her if she voted, and I found it difficult to believe what she told me. She looked around, almost furtively, as if someone might have bugged the room and spoke in a low voice as she told me that she had voted Conservative for the first time in her life. All her friends, she said had voted UKIP, and with a faint smile she added that she had made out to them that she had also voted UKIP.
I was about to berate her, to tell her that she should have the courage of her convictions, but a knowing look from my wife prevented me from doing this, as well as the fact the is in her late eighties (mother-in-law, not the wife).
What I am saying is that people are scared to speak the truth today, and I think this applies to political parties as much as it does to individuals.