How to win back the smokers' vote
Monday, September 22, 2008 I have just arrived in Manchester, having set off for the Labour conference at 6.00 this morning. Fortunately my pass arrived on Saturday. My colleague Brian Monteith has not been so lucky, so he will no doubt spend a couple of hours in a queue at the Premier Travel Inn (!) waiting for a replacement.
Tomorrow's Forest/Free Society meeting promises to be an intimate affair. In previous years, even with the likes of David Hockney, Joe Jackson and Mirror columnist Sue Carroll as guest speakers, we have always struggled to attract large numbers of Labour delegates. Last year we pulled in about a hundred (including some building workers from across the road), but that was only by offering gallons of free champagne. (In my experience, champagne socialists live up to their name.)
This year's meeting is going to be a model of sobriety. It's called "Labour: how to win back the smokers' vote". I have my own ideas, but if you have any suggestions I'll see if I can include some of them in my speech.
Reader Comments (27)
To be honest Simon, unless they reform the ban virtually immediately and stop listening to the lying spin-doctors of the anti-smoking brigade, they will have lost my vote forever. That goes for any political party as well.
I don't hold out much hope though. All I see is many labour MPs rubbing their hands together to see how much more they can 'denormalise' me and millions more like me. Not only that, they are also continuing to turn the screw - the 'little, plain, white boxes' seem to be on the cards now for cigarettes.
Well thank-you very much, but what guarantees are there going to be in place to ensure that my branded cigarettes are not harmful counterfiets? They'd be pretty easy to fake. None, I expect. Do they care - I doubt it. So much for these measures being taken for the health of the country - I just roll my eyes in disbelief
Personally Simon I don't think there is anything that Labour can do now to win back votes. They, as so many party's that have been in power for too long, have become totally complacent, have lost all touch they may have had with the people and are, like out local councils, only interested in their own inflated egos!
The problem is, I don't see much difference in the Conservatives or the Lib Dems, regardless of what their policies might be, there is no guarantee they won't all change the day they are voted into power, be that at the next election or others in the future!
The North American Indians were right not to trust the white man, particularly those in any power; they still speak with forked tongue today! (By the way, I am white - just in case anyone was wondering!).
Being a Labour Party minster/MP/supporter is never having to say "we were wrong, hasty, or over zealous". Schadenfreude is not a pleasent feeling to have, but at the next election if they have 200 MPs I would be surprised. The middle classes in the south and midlands have had enough stealth taxes, Scotland and Wales are a blank canvass for the nationalists. The traditional Labour strongholds of the north where smoking is most prevelent may well return its first Tory MPs in decades. The Freedom Charter that was mooted in the Sun, whereby the smoking ban maybe amended, has initiated a flurry of emails to prospective Tory MPs praising the initiative, so I understand. Most of the replies have been very positive from the Tories and all the needs to happen is that this is brought to the attention of the voters.
The Labour Party conference this year maybe a cross between a morgue and a condemned man waiting for the gallows, but if they want to win back any core support, action not spin, the smoking ban should be at the top of the agenda.
I think Labour is finished and havent a hope of getting elected again. As the Torys are not exactly (yet) hugging buddies of the unelected suits in the EU this is an opportunity for them to announce that they will be amending the smoking ban to include a disenfranchised minority/a more liberal and fair arrangement for smokers/non smokers/smoking rooms in pubs and restaurants for smokers etc. There are lots of nice subtle hints they can use to let the eu suits know that they are a country that can stand on their own feet and decide and decree best practice for their own constituents withouse outside interference, while at the same time sending out the right message to the english people and getting back a whole lot of respect from the people that was so sadly lacking for the past eleven years.
At the risk of hogging too many posts, here is my analysis for the next 10 years politically.
I think Cameron will have a massive majority at the election, 150-200, this will allow him to do number of things. Redraw the boundaries in England whereby gaining him an extra, I think, 30 seats and address the West Lothian question. Thereby granting an absolute majority to the Tories on English issues. If the Labour Party has the same disastrous results in Scotland, the Scots may ask for independence or greater powers, possibly the same for Wales. The English Labour Party will have the PC brigade having sleepless nights. How will Labour ever be able to appeal to the English electorate ever again, will they be forced to merge with the Liberals, will the main rivals to the Tories be UKIP or the BNP?
If Labour have not taken note of macro and micro political forces, (if I can borrow an economics term) that are defeating them, they deserve little else. I only blame Labour for 10% of our economic woes, I was for the invasion of Iraq at the time, but the smoking ban is one matter that has impacted me on a daily basis, severely compromises my quality of life and most importantly is entirely and totally their prerogative to pass, amend, or cancel by Labour. Every time I am on a pavement after having my conversation interrupted to pop out for a fag, in the rain and cold, being looked at as a social pariah, I pray for newspaper headlines in 2010 that say “Labour wipe out”. You have been warned.
Dave Atherton above made the point very well that as a smoker I am reminded every day of the misery this draconian ban has brought on me as a law abiding, voting adult who just happen to smoke - I will not forget Labours broken election manifesto on this issue when it comes to voting next time.
As for action, well I suspect that many back benchers are simply preparing for opposition and as such will only be interested in saving their own seats. How about courting support from their adult constituents by trying to win back all those very p***** o** smokers!
One way of grabbing their attention may be to high light the fact that the extent of the smoking ban is for many like me, the "tipping point" at which all support for the party was lost. I don't blame my MP for Iraq, the price of oil, house prices etc, but I do blame him for preventing me from smoking and drinking simultaneously in comfortable surroundings with other like minded citizens.
Put this right Labour or indeed "There will be blood" come election time!
Unless they reform this ban 'sharpish', they will never win back the smoker's vote.
If they believe that smokers will forgive and forget what their broken manifesto promise is constantly doing to them, and their non-smoking friends and family as well, then they're on a different planet.
They'll get everything they deserve at the next election, and I for one will be staying up and watching them squirm!
I'm sorry if I appear bitter, I was never bitter until this ban. This piece of legislation has a lot to answer for.
I wish you well with your speech, Simon, but I doubt anyone will really listen to you. The Government does not listen to the views of ordinary people - or more extraordinary ones and I doubt very much that these New Labour MPs will make an exception for you. However, if you started to mention the loss of their expenses, second homes and large salaries for bossing the people around as well as other perks - well, then they may start to wake up a little!! There's always hope - not!
Good luck in the speech but your chances of change are likely small as most Labour MPs will not attend anyway. What to propose is to highlight on a daily basis the affects of the ban and threaten to employ a high profile PR company. Tell them that the gloves are off and from now on the papers and news will show war veterans in wheelchairs sitting outside closed Services Clubs, pensioners sitting at home depressed and lonely because their bingo hall has shut down, bankrupt licensees standing outside boarded up pubs and having their homes repossessed etc.
At the moment the population will use any stick to beat Labour and more bad publicity is not something that they will seek. It would be pointless attacking the lies and flawed data as the population in general do not care but sob stories attract attention.
I think the NuLabour cronies are too arrogant to attend. They think that Forest only speaks for a few and of course they know more than you, I, or the electorate at large about what we want!
"Listening" is a buzz word that they use to con us all into having some sort of false hope of change. It is not what they do.
However, if a handful of NuLab MPs do turn up, perhaps you could point out the following and maybe, just maybe, they will mention it to someone that has the influence to make changes although I suspect it's just too late.
NuLabour not only lied to the country about all sorts of things - the reason for war in Iraq, the smoking and health issue, the "popularity" of the ban which "most people wanted" when we all know pre-ban surveys revealed that both smokers and the majority of non-smokers wanted choice.
Worse than lie, they wrenched hope away from those who helped to sweep them to power after the years of Tory misrule and sleaze (oh how innocent those days now seem. Give me a politician that sleeps with a hooker in a football shirt any day to one that lies through their teeth in a smart suit!)
NuLabour's only chance of avoiding a humiliating defeat lies in bringing back lifestyle choices and allowing adults to behave as adults and not naughty children forced to take the nasty Govt medicine for their own good.
This would include overturning the smoking ban and bringing an end to wasting NHS money on scaremongering and smoker-hate campaign TV ads. I also resent my taxes being used for other promotions shown on television which are designed to bully and scare me such as TV licensing, and car tax.
Finally, tell them to stop waging social war on the working and underclasses - their former core supporters.
Through changes in the family credit tax system, and of course university tuition fees, NuLab have ensured that the benefits escape tunnel has closed for good. There is now less chance of social mobility than before 1997.
We need unity and equality at social as well as ethnic level. We don't need initiatives that set us against each other such as the smoking ban. It is divisive and harmful to social cohesion.
It doesn't really matter who else wins the election. There is not much difference between the parties. But they must be sent a message by NuLabour's defeat. Yes, the economy, credit-crunch, war and the rest will play a part in NuLabour's humiliation but other parties will ignore the impact of the smokers' vote at their peril.
NuLabour genuinely deserves to lose wretchedly and be obliterated as a party forever for disgracefully abandoning the once proud socialist Labour party's ideological roots.
Shame on Blair, Brown, Harriet (I'm a woman so therefore I should get the job) Harman, Milliand, Blunkett, Hewitt, Balls, Jowett, Blears ,,, et al.
RIP Labour. The party died in 1997. Celebrate instead what could hopefully be the end of this Nubreed of politicians at the next election.
What you need to make clear Simon, in your speech is this:
If Labour want to reclaim many millions of the voters that have deserted them, then they have to think seriously about either amending the smoking ban…or better still repealing it.
You could begin by pointing out that they reneged on their promises in their 2005 election manifesto pledge, by bringing in a blanket ban, which has served to alienate their core vote and drive it away.
Many millions of social lives have been destroyed and a feeling of anger now replaces the loyal following that Labour once enjoyed.
Smokers quite rightly feel persecuted; this persecution has now developed into some kind of nightmarish hysterical monster that is utterly out of control...and this has to stop now!
It is gross hypocrisy to take £12 billion of tobacco revenue, and then deny legitimate places whereby smokers can legally enjoy their pastime, when previously we were welcomed.
Smokers will deliver a sickening revenge to these halfwits at the next election…and boy I can’t wait...and you can multiply these sentiments several millions times over!
Nothing. Niet. Zilch.
They are traitors, warmongering criminals, brown-envelope charlatans, hypocrites, liars, heartless interfering bullies and doublespeaking drones.
As a credible political movement, they're dead.
Looks like you're not the only ones having trouble with ID Passes at the nulab princes' parade. No2ID's Phil Booth had been due to speak at a fringe-meeting but was denied access to the hall due to an unspecified "problem" with his application.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7630088.stm
In this article, the lovely Meg Hillier [Mzz] describes how struck she was by Hungary's practise of compelling fourteen year-olds to carry ID cards and how it's still "full steam ahead" for Lesser Britain's ID wheeze. Gordon's champing at the bit for it, apparently.
Her quotes look like an admission, from this junior-minister PPE-graduate Hackney-representing but Islington-living wonkette, that nulab are indeed indulging a scorched-earth program.
I'd suggest forget NuLabour, Simon, and work out the ramifications of the smokers' vote (I'm sure that there must be computer programmes available) on the poll ratings of other parties, with a view to lobbying them and playing them off against each other. There is surely enough material now to convince politicians of the strength of anger among smokers and you could also use the social research tool - so beloved of the antis - of projecting from a sample to a population!
What I'd like them to understand - if they're capable of understanding it - is that:
1) There are people in this country who are mature about the risks that life presents.
2) There are people in this country who have taken the time, not just to get older, but to 'grow up' (remember that notion?). To read a great deal. To think a great deal. To come to terms with the loss of loved ones. To look at life from many angles, and to come to terms with their own mortality (or lack of it, depending on their point of view).
Not only have they done this, but they've done this all on their own. With no 'helping hands' from anyone.
3) There are people in this country who choose to find their own ways to heal, rather than visit a GP.
In short. We are not all 12 years old. We do not all spend every waking moment in front of the 'goggle box'. We do not all hang on every word that politicians utter in order to be 'guided' through our lives (which only we understand), nor to be patronised and told what's best for us (which only we can know - for each of us is vast, deep and mysterious, and not merely the measurement of our physical components). We can think for ourselves (and should be encouraged to do so, in my view).
When governments focus on creating 'perfect, healthy specimens' - it frightens me to the core. The most brilliant and wonderful things that humans posess are their minds, and their spirits.
Why is New Labour hell-bent on destroying these, for the sake of 'healthy bodies'? Why do they want a nation of fitness fanatics rather than a nation of geniuses and Ghandis?
Where do they think this will lead? Savings on the NHS? Do they really believe that? Do they really think the COST to our future society, in terms of liberty, mental prowess, the development of perspective and the getting of wisdom, is worth it?
Is it, in fact, THEY who are 12?
With nanny/bully Brown et al we smokers warned that you will be next. Fines for parking, bins left 3mm too open, we all drink too much alcohol, ID cards etc, I notice that in newspaper website debates on for example banning the open sale of cigarettes even anti smokers are supporting us. "I don't like smoking but this government is going too far".
"All I see these days are smokers in the streets, standing outside offices and pubs, is this the way to set an example to younger people?".
It is not only 12 million smokers who have had enough, but 30 million non smokers too. Labour has had the rare distinction of uniting smokers and non smokers alike.
I heard a report from the NSPCC today. Children being abused throughout the nation on a daily basis. With all this going on, the NSPCC do not have enough money to fight things which are sometimes so horrific that I dare not think about what is happening. They have phone lines which are going unanswered. Here is just one example of something which also reminds me that this government spent millions of pounds on a ban. A ban in public places, signage being put up where, except for some (not all) of the hospitality venues, people had not not smoked for years, decades, even centuries. Signage in workplaces, most of which had a non smoking policy already. Money spent on smoking cessation, while they reduce hospital beds and have an MRSA epidemic which kills more people than smoking does. All this money spent on making life difficult for millions of people who enjoy a pipe, cigar or cigarette, while there are children suffering everywhere because the NSPCC do not have enough money to prevent it.
OK. Here is the comment I just put on Kerry McCarthy's blogsite.
Kerry, it is so frustrating. I could leave my front door, catch the 41 bus only seconds away, and be there in between 30 and 60 minutes, depending on traffic. I could drive in and be there in between 30 and 190 minutes, depending on parking. I could leave when you where getting out of bed and be there to say hello, depending on how long it takes for you to do your hair and makeup.
Alas, looking after my daughter's dog, meeting publishing deadlines, and the tight security at the Labour Party Conference (do people really hate them that much) makes this impossible.
Just think Kerry, I could wave from the crowds and shout, "It is timbone".
Kerry, do me one favour if you can. Go to the Forest/Free Society fringe meeting today, even if it is just to see Joe Jackson.
Trying to influence pigs and fish with words is an almost impossible task and Nu-Labour are just like these animals.
I just look forward, like many others here, to their devastating departure at the next election which I hope comes soon. On that date I expect I shall experience multiple orgasms.
Unfortunately, a massive victory for the Tories will not be much good for the country either, for then, they will also be tempted to do just as they like too, including reneging on promises and freedom agendas.
As matters stand, the choice facing the nation does not look too grand.
Yes, I rather think that attempting a change of heart from the not-quite-dead Labour Party (fetch me a pillow, somebody) is a waste of human energy (but, thanks, Simon, for having the courage to try). With bits falling off daily, it's a wonder how it manages to keep walking..................
Love 'em or hate 'em, the Tories are the ONLY obvious target for our attention now.
It's called 'Realpolitik', folks.
The interesting question for me, however, is this: will their dazzling lead in the polls make them BOLDER (as I hope) in defence of personal liberties - or MORE TIMID (as I fear) ?
If the former, then the Tories will win the additional support of many 'traditional' but fair-minded Labour voters, whilst consolidating their own 'natural' electoral power base.
If the latter, then they will merely earn the contempt they deserve, and leave the bitter taste of betrayal in the mouths of hundreds of thousands of would-be well-wishers.
Simple arithmetic, really: but can the Heir To Blair count ?
After all, if saying practically NOTHING about ANYTHING has got Dave this far, why should he jeopardise a winning formula now, even if he's only 'winning' by default ?
After Birmingham, I think we'll ALL have a pretty good idea of whether it's going to be an Opportunity Grasped - or an Opportunity Lost (possibly forever).
With the chance of getting my eye dyed here, what about if all smokers just voted for UKIP and the BNP parties. And when the canvassers come round before the next elections say to them 'I'm fed up waiting for your party to amend the smoking ban and my vote is going to UKIP and BNP because the fringe party's are our only hope now'.
Even tho they havent a chance of getting into govt I think it would give the only message that would be understood by big govt. After all the way the world is going now and with the invasion of the EU into our lives more and more each day, what the hell difference does it make at this stage as there's not much difference between the lot of them anyhow and a few radicals just might shake up the mix and give the suits something to give their attention to other than themselves.
Ann, I quite agree that a protest vote, as I call it, for UKIP or BNP is the only way to kick these complacent idiots up the backside and to remind them that they actually work for US!
We can just hope that many more people feel the same!
Ann and Lyn -
I support your sentiments in their entirety, but still think we need - at this stage in our 'campaign' - to consider our TACTICS very carefully, if we are not to be crying in the wind for the rest of our lives.
God knows, I'm not exactly one of David Cameron's most ardent admirers, but the fact remains that the Tories ARE (barring a meteor strike or the Second Coming) going to form the next government. And - on current poll findings - with a SUBSTANTIAL majority, too.
That being the case, there are several obvious facts that we need to take on board:
a) Save for a small group of Quislings and
Muppets, the MAJORITY of Tories voted AGAINST
the Ban
b) If the majority is as large as currently
indicated, there will inevitably be a huge
influx of NEW PEOPLE who are as dismayed
with the current state of things as the
rest of us, and who do NOT belong to Dave's
cadre of floppy-haired Sloane Rangers
(ie what Neil Kinnock once patronisingly
referred to as 'Real People').
c) In such circumstances, another 'Free Vote' -
this time on a major amendment of the
legislation - would almost INEVITABLY be
carried in our favour.
d) A large and significant number opting for
'altenative' parties would merely DILUTE
(what one may call) the Anti-Authoritarian
Vote - thereby reducing the number of
sympathetic voices in the Commons.
Hence my argument that - strictly as a matter of electoral logic - we should now bring the FULL force of our campaign to bear on the Conservative Party - INCLUDING its PROSPECTIVE MPs.
This MAY just provide the 'tipping point' needed to bring the waverers onside, and to embolden those who are ALREADY with us to speak out with rather greater force than hitherto they've been minded to.
And even a limp-wristed Tory Leadership should recognise that it has two powerful and indefeasible arguments to offer the PUBLIC:
a) The Libertarian Argument (lives ruined,
freedoms destroyed etc)
b) The Commercial Argument (business closures,
jobs lost in their thousands)
And that's WITHOUT even having to play the anti-'Europe' or Junk Science cards.
Elsewhere, I have argued for a RADICAL change in the way the politics of this country is organised, but that's not going to happen between now and 2010.
The way things are at present, I see no REAL alternative (if you'll forgive the phrase).
If the only way to defeat Hitler is by 'supporting' Stalin, then..............
I guess your right Martin V about supporting Stalin, but I still think that canvassers should be bluffed (or not) on the doorstep at the next elections by telling them that your vote is going to the fringe parties. If nothing else than to consentrate minds. After all its not as if the bastards dont threaten us every day with money making and cruel bans under the brainwashing spin that its all for our own good.
Ann -
Well, I'm all for THAT:
Yes - SCARE the bastards.....................
Sadly, I haven't had a canvasser round here in over TWENTY years (and I'm DYING to get my hands on one !!).
In the meantime, I'll need all my resources to get over the distress caused by Roof Kelly's resignation..........
I can see your point Martin, but at the end of the day, all 3 main parties have lied to a greater or lesser degree in an effort to get out votes. They do not seem concerned about using fraudulent tactics as and when it suits them, so who is to say the Conservatives really will make changes to the smoking ban that are positive to smokers? If they think it will get them votes, then I have no doubt they will use it in their manifesto, but in reality I am sure it will end up, if the win, being a very low priority a long way down their agenda and possibly even forgotten in the mists of time!
I am still very much on the fence on this one and it will take a lot for the Conservatives to convince me that they are genuine in their wish to help smokers and businesses affected by the smoking ban and will in fact carry it through in a very short timescale.
Lyn -
Yes - Lying Politicians are a problem, of course.
But THAT principle rules out support for ANY party, surely ?
However, one year on from the Ban, we can now SEE the actual harm that has been done (so much more effective than theorising about it in advance).
Any party that failed to implement an amendment in THOSE circumstances - having once promised to do so - would have to be TOTALLY crazy.
I appreciate (and share) your doubts, naturally: all I'm doing is seeking to back the horse MOST likely to run - and WIN - for us...........
Backing outsiders is a perilous business.