It's a wonderful life

I shall be in London tomorrow recording a 20-second soundbite for BBC Breakfast to be broadcast after Christmas. To be specific, they want to film in the car park at Sainsbury's, Ladbroke Grove, at 9.00am. No doubt it will be very, very cold.

The interview is part of a report examining the impact of the smoking ban, six months on. Anti-smoking campaigners will declare the ban to have been a great success (high compliance, dramatic health benefits etc). Expect more of this nonsense between now and the new year.

It's that time of year again

This morning I took a call from Dan Sheldon, assistant producer, Big Brother. Endemol, the production company, is currently in the middle of auditions for new housemates for the next series.

"We're hoping to cast the net far and wide so that housemates represent a broad spectrum of beliefs, interests and groups. It would be great if you could pass on the audition details to as many of your supporters as possible in case they want to come along and audition."

Venues, dates and times can be found on the Big Brother website (click HERE). They include Glasgow (Sat & Sun 5/6 Jan), Newcastle (Sat & Sun 12/13 Jan) and London (Sat & Sun 19/20 Jan).

"If anyone is interested in applying," said Dan, "they can email BB directly with their details which means they could avoid all the queues at the venues." The address is bb9@endemoluk.com.

Note: in the unlikely event that you get selected, Forest reserves the right to disown or deny any knowledge of you whatsoever. I'm not joking.

French lesson for Britain's liberal elite

Lewis Hamilton is the latest person to fall victim to the traffic cops. The F1 driver was caught travelling at 196km/h (122mph) in northern France on Sunday. That's not the interesting bit of the story, however. What I didn't know is that the speed limit on French motorways is 130km/h (85mph).

If it's good enough for the French, it's good enough for us. So if Nick Clegg really wants to mark the "beginning of Britain's liberal future", I suggest he starts by proposing an immediate increase in the speed at which we can (legally) drive on Britain's motorways.

The Tories flirted with the idea at the last general election, but it soon dropped off the radar. It's not a massive vote winner but it would be a statement of intent, especially if it came as part of a package of "liberalising" measures. 

Speaking of which, I've just had an idea. I'll get back to you tomorrow.

Will the real liberals please stand up?

I would like to say that Nick Clegg's election as leader of the Liberal Democrats is good news for those of a genuinely liberal persuasion. I would like to say it ... but the jury is most definitely out.

It's all very well for Clegg to say that he wants his election to mark the "beginning of Britain's liberal future", or that he wants to attract those voters who share liberal values but do not currently vote for the party,  but the reality is rather different.

In the real world Clegg came remarkably close to losing a leadership contest he was originally odds on to win. His rival Chris Huhne won a moral victory and while they were battling it out acting leader Vince Cable stole their thunder and is now, despite his age, a clear leader in waiting.

All this is going to have a serious impact on how far Clegg can change the culture of a party which is no more liberal than New Labour. Denied an overwhelming mandate for root and branch reform of Liberal policies, Clegg will almost certainly be forced to adopt a less radical (ie less liberal) approach.

In the meantime, the Lib Dem leader is welcome to borrow Forest's new slogan, "Will the real liberals please stand up?" Watch this space.

Questions and answers

A week or so ago I mentioned that I had been sent a series of questions for an article about the impact of the smoking ban. I then invited your response to the same questions (see HERE). For what it's worth, here are my replies:

1. How would you say smokers have reacted to the smoking ban? Do you feel that people have been encouraged to give up?

Most smokers have adapted to the ban, just as they adapted to earlier restrictions on smoking. Some have reacted with good humour, but others are very unhappy about it. They are angry that the government reneged on its election promise to exempt private clubs and pubs that don't serve food, and they rightly believe that the ban is based on unfounded claims about the effects of passive smoking.

The inconvenience of having to go outside, especially at work, may have forced some people to cut down or quit, but the vast majority of smokers have no intention of giving up. If anything, the ban has reinforced their determination to smoke because no-one likes being told what to do. In the words of one smoker, they are "reaching for their fags in defiance".

2. A number of pubs and clubs have spent a lot of money converting their establishments to provide outdoor smoking areas. Many of these include outdoor heating which it could be suggested might have an environmental impact. What would your comment on this be?

This is the latest in a long line of scare-mongering tactics used by environmentalists and anti-smoking campaigners. If there is an impact it is probably very small and if people are worried about it there's a very easy solution - amend the legislation to allow pubs and clubs to create well-ventilated smoking rooms indoors so people don't have to go outside to smoke.

3. Interviews I have conducted for my article have suggested that smoking has become more of a social activity since the ban. Going out for a cigarette has become part of a night out for people. Do you think smoking has become more socially acceptable since the ban?

Smoking has always been a sociable activity and the ban hasn't changed that. However, being forced to go outside has probably heightened the sense of cameraderie among smokers. But no-one wants to go outside to smoke if it's cold and wet and for many people it's a real pain in the neck.

If, however, the ban is designed to "denormalise" smoking it's counter-productive because the sight of large numbers of smokers outside pubs and clubs simply emphasises how many people smoke and how normal it is for those who do.

4. Some smokers I have spoken to have suggested that going for a cigarette has become a way to meet new people. Approaching someone to ask for a lighter etc can be a great way to strike up a conversation. What would your comment on ‘smirting’ (smoking and flirting) be?

Smirting is nothing new. Smokers have always asked one another for a light and used it as an excuse to talk to someone they fancy. However, the ban does give people something to talk about so, until the novelty wears off, it's probably a good icebreaker for some people.

5. It could be suggested that non-smokers are encouraged to join their friends for a cigarette outside rather than be left alone in the pub/club. Do you think non-smokers will be encouraged to take up smoking as a social activity?

It's true that, rather than sit in an empty pub, non-smokers will often choose join their friends outside, but the idea that non-smokers will be encouraged to start smoking is crazy. There are lots of reasons why people choose to smoke, and this isn't one of them.

6. As far as passive smoking is concerned, are people less likely to receive the harmful effects by standing in close proximity to a smoker outside than inside?

The effects of passive smoking have been greatly exaggerated. Based on the evidence, there is no justification for a total ban on smoking in every pub, club and bar in the country. Given that the results of indoor studies are inconclusive, the suggestion that anyone is at risk from standing in close proximity to someone smoking outside is ludicrous. Some highly sensitive people may not like it, but there is not a shred of evidence to suggest that it is harmful. If campaigners use this as an excuse to ban smoking in outdoor areas as well they will open themselves to ridicule.

Where there's hope

A friend who went to London's O2 last night to watch the Verve was amazed to see loads of people smoking INSIDE the arena.

"The security guards," she reports, "weren't doing very much about it, so there's hope yet!"

Is this a first?

Our old friend James Leavey (editor of the Forest Guide to Smoking in London, 1997) claims to be the first person to smoke a cigar on Cunard's new liner, the Queen Victoria (above).

"I even smoked in the Churchill cigar lounge, where it's illegal to smoke while the ship is berthed in Southampton. But then December 9 was my 60th birthday.

"PS. Sir Jimmy Savile was also on board but he kept his cigar in his sock, half smoked - I told him where to enjoy it (smokewise)."

You read it here first.

Season's greetings

The 2007 Forest Christmas card (left) has just arrived from the printers. The greeting reads 'Happy Christmas ... and a smoker-friendly New Year'. Recipients will include MPs, peers, journalists and other opinion formers. Oh, and we may even send some to our "friends" in the anti-smoking industry (BMA, ASH et al).

The card is not for sale but is part of our 'Smoker Awareness' campaign. Friends of Forest will also receive one. To become a Friend please send a donation (minimum £15 per annum, £10 students/OAPs) to Forest, Sheraton House, Castle Park, Cambridge CB3 0AX. We need your full name and address, your email address, plus confirmation that you are aged 18 or above.

ASH apologises to Allen Carr's Easyway

The following has just been brought to my attention.
I make no comment other than to speculate that the legal costs incurred will presumably be paid for with money provided by the taxpayer or ASH's principal donors, the British Heart Foundation and Cancer Research.

"On 29th November 2006 the Director of ASH, Deborah Arnott, was interviewed by the BBC Radio 4 programme ‘PM’ in the context of a piece concerning the death of Allen Carr of Allen Carr’s Easyway International. During the course of the interview reference was made to Allen Carr’s open letter to Tony Blair which was published on www.allencarr.com and Ms Arnott was asked to express her opinion on the views expressed by Mr Carr who passed away that morning.

"Despite references during the interview to the studies mentioned by Allen Carr in his letter that indicated a 53% success rate for Allen Carr’s Easyway To Stop Smoking Clinics after 12 months, Ms Arnott stated that the 53% success rate had been “plucked out of the air” and “basically made up”.

"Following a complaint by Allen Carr’s Easyway International, Ms Arnott now acknowledges that two uncontrolled, observational and retrospective studies using self-reported abstinence have been published in peer reviewed journals and have reported success rates for the Allen Carr method consistent with an estimate of 53% after twelve months."

Full apology HERE.

Coming soon to a showroom near you

As an existing Audi owner, I have just received a brochure for the new A4 which comes out in February. It looks great but I can't help thinking that today's cars are becoming the automotive equivalent of the nanny state.

For example, the new A4 offers something called 'Audi Adaptive Cruise Control' which not only programs the car to travel at a constant speed (admittedly useful with all those average speed cameras around) but also "lets you set the distance you wish to keep between you and the vehicle in front".

There's 'Audi Side Assist' that "alerts the driver to vehicles moving into the blind spot" when you are moving in excess of 40mph. And there's 'Audi Lane Assist' which alerts the driver before you unintentionally wander out of your lane. Presumably, if you intentionally change lanes (ie overtake) it emits a piercing scream. Last but not least, the new A4 has headlights that "automatically switch on in poor light conditions".

Like the nanny state, these features come at a price. Thankfully they are all options (ie you have a choice) otherwise the cost of a standard A4 (£24k) would be a lot more. My fear is that politicians will see these innovations and make them compulsory. (Why? Because they can!)

Anyway, when was the last time you "unwillingly changed lanes" or were caught out by your blind spot? (Sure, it happens, but is it worth an extra £2-3,000 on the price of your car?) As for "poor light conditions", I can decide that for myself, thank you very much. Mind you, the new daytime running lights look very pretty - damn the expense!

Spot the difference

Last week a large brown envelope landed on my desk. Inside, attached to a thick A3 sheet of paper, was a bright yellow card that read, "With compliments from David Hockney". (David, I should mention, is a member of Forest's Supporters Council.)

I looked at the paper. There were two facsimiles, side by side. On one side was a full-page advertisement for pipe tobacco - Wills's Cut Golden Bar. The ad (from the Fifties, I would guess) featured a comic strip-style story entitled 'Pipe Puts Him In Print'. Mike, a young reporter, is sent to cover a big fire on Pond Street. When he returns, Dodds, his editor, reads his copy and says:

"No, Mike, you've fallen down on this ... facts all over the place. You must concentrate. Why not try a pipe?"
Mike: "Sorry, sir. Maybe a pipe is what I need."

Later ...

Chairman: "I like that Valley scheme feature, Dodds. Who's covering it?"
Dodds: "Young Mike Agar. What a change in that boy!"

Later ...

Chairman: "You're top o' the column these days, Mike. You write like an old hand. What's the inspiration?"
Mike: "Not inspiration, old boy - concentration! I just put on a pipe of Cut Golden Bar - and think."

The ad concludes:

"The leading feature of Cut Golden Bar is the extra satisfaction I get from this fine cool blend. I reckon on half an hour's good smoking from every fill ... and think of the thinking you can do in that time!"

The second facsimile features a cover of the Guardian's G2 supplement (08.11.07). Below a picture of two white pills it read:

This is modafinil. It makes you feel sharp, and it boosts your memory and the side effects are minimal. The drug is licensed for use by people suffering from narcolepsy. But these days you're just as likely to find perfectly healthy students popping it. Katherine Hibbert on the rise of brain-boosting drugs.

Can you spot the difference? (Clue: one product is manufactured by a tobacco company, the other by a pharmaceutical company.)

Pseudoscience and anti-tobacco activism

Few people are interested in the fine detail of the smoking issue. And that's part of the problem. The anti-smoking lobby is winning the propaganda war on tobacco because media-friendly slogans like "passive smoking kills" are difficult to refute in a short press release or a 20-second soundbite.

Three years ago Forest commissioned and later published a substantial 52-page document - Prejudice & Propaganda: The Truth About Passive Smoking - that countered, in painstaking detail, the argument that "passive smoking" is proven to be a serious threat to non-smokers. It included a comprehensive list of studies on the subject and no-one who read it could fail to appreciate that - at the very least - the anti-smoking industry has seriously over-estimated the impact of secondhand smoke.

We launched the report with a briefing at the House of Lords to which we invited MPs, peers and journalists. A PR company was recruited to help 'sell' the event. Three peers (personal friends of our late chairman Lord Harris) turned up, but not a single journalist or member of parliament.

Tens of thousands of people have downloaded the report from our website, but few (if any) were the people who mattered - MPs, civil servants and health and safety officials. We sent them printed copies but I doubt they gave it more than a cursory glance. Why would they? It doesn't support their preconceived prejudice that passive smoking kills thousands of non-smokers every year.

Anyway, my attention has been drawn to a website called Epidemiologic Perspectives and Innovations. It includes some fascinating commentaries and papers which I hope that anyone with a genuine interest in the smoking issue will take the time and trouble to read. Titles include:

• Warning: Anti-tobacco activism may be hazardous to epidemiologic science (Carl V Phillips)
• Is the tobacco control movement misrepresenting the acute cardiovascular health effects of secondhand smoke exposure? An analysis of the scientific evidence and commentary on the implications for tobacco control and public health practice (Michael Siegel)
• Defending legitimate epidemiologic research: combating Lysenko pseudoscience (James E Enstrom)

The above were published in October and are currently the top 10 most accessed articles on the site for last 30 days. If you haven't got time to read all three, I urge you to at least read the article by Carl Phillips. Click HERE. To download Prejudice & Propaganda: The Truth About Passive Smoking, click HERE.

Question time

A journalist writing an article about the impact of the smoking ban has sent us the following questions. I'd be interested in your response:

1. How would you say smokers have reacted to the smoking ban? Do you feel that people have been encouraged to give up?

2. In the small town where I live in a number of pubs and clubs have spent a lot of money converting their establishments to provide outdoor smoking areas. Many of these include outdoor heating which, it could be suggested, might have an environmental impact. What would your comment on this be?

3. Interviews I have conducted for my article so far have suggested that smoking has become more of a social activity since the ban. Going outside for a cigarette has become part of a night out for people. What would your comment on this be? Do you think smoking has become more socially acceptable since the ban?

4. Some smokers I have spoken to have suggested that going for a cigarette has become a way to meet new people. Approaching someone to ask for a lighter etc can be a great way to strike up a conversation. What would your comment on ‘smirting’ (smoking and flirting) be?

5. It could be suggested that non-smokers are encouraged to join their friends for a cigarette outside rather than be left alone in the pub/club. Do you think non-smokers will be encouraged to take up smoking as a social activity?

Life and times of The Politico

Talking of Iain Dale (below), Iain this week revealed on his blog that "Earlier in the summer I was tidying some files at home and a copy of a magazine fell out of a file. It was called The Politico and I published three issues of it while I was running Politico's in 2003. I started re-reading it and began to remember what a brilliant reaction it provoked at the time. It only had three issues because I then closed the shop and the people who produced it moved on to other things."

I must declare an interest. "The people who produced it" were me and my then Forest colleague Jo Gaffikin (above left). We conceived and sold the idea to Iain, designed it in an afternoon on my Apple Mac, and for the best part of a year had an absolute blast producing what was intended to be a quarterly publication promoting the niche political books market.

The Politico was an eclectic mix of interviews (Tony Benn, David Davis, John Bercow, Jeremy Paxman, Sandy Toksvig), feature articles and reviews, most of them written by MPs, historians and journalists, including some of the country's top political commentators. Iain had an impressive list of contacts and the fact that Politicos published as well as sold books opened many a door that may otherwise have remained shut.

Unfortunately, no-one (and I mean no-one) made a penny from the project. It was given away free - to bookshop customers and at party conferences - so there was no income other than a bit of advertising revenue that enabled us to cover our printing costs.

After three issues, far from "moving on to other things", Jo and I decided that we couldn't continue working for nothing so we jacked it in. Iain has now announced that he intends to launch a new magazine next year. Funding is in place, he tells us. I wish it well. Magazine publishing is a brutal business.

PS. Jo is now communications manager at the Design Museum in London where (among other things) she writes an exhibition blog. We keep in touch and I was delighted to see her at last week's event at Boisdale, proof that there is life after Forest - and The Politico!

Bonfire of the bureaucrats

Iain Dale, Britain's premier political blogger, an upwardly mobile political commentator, and a friend of The Free Society, has a column in today's Daily Telegraph. Headlined 'We need a bonfire of the bureaucrats', it begins:

It's difficult to pinpoint when the era of "big government" began, but it is sure that government plays a bigger part in the everyday life of the ordinary citizen than ever before. The Blair/Brown decade has seen an explosion in government interference, nanny statism, political correctness and an over-zealous health and safety culture.

Bravely, for a prospective parliamentary candidate for the Conservative party, he accuses the Tories of sometimes paying lip-service to the concept of a smaller state. I couldn't agree more.

Actions speak louder than words, but I really do believe that if we can get more people like Iain into parliament there is reason to hope that we may yet push back the frontiers of the nanny bully state. It won't happen overnight (I predict 10-15 years) but there is a light at the end of a long dark tunnel.

Full article HERE.