Election night blog
Friday, May 7, 2010 04:45 OK, that's it. I'm tired, and bored, and dawn is breaking. Good night.
04:41 It's not confirmed but Nick Robinson is reporting (on the BBC) that Ed Balls has held his seat.
04:36 Redditch: CON GAIN. Well, we've just had our "Portillo moment" but it wasn't Ed Balls (yet). It was Jacqui Smith. The former Home Secretary has been "trounced" by her Tory opponent. Once again, though, I feel oddly underwhelmed by the experience. She, on the other hand, looks thoroughly pissed off.
04:25 Luton South: LAB HOLD. Sadly, Conservative candidate Nigel Huddleston - who supports the Save Our Pubs & Clubs campaign and even had a photograph taken wearing a campaign t-shirt - failed to defeat his Labour rival (who replaced disgraced Labour MP Margaret Moran) despite a 4% swing from Labour to Conservative.
Nigel wasn't helped by the fact that Luton South attracted 13 candidates including Esther Rantzen who picked up a meagre 1872 votes. The result, however, was to divert precious votes away from Nick and so the party of the departing MP has ended up holding on to the seat when it should have been defeated. Thanks, guys.
04:12 Back on the BBC boat Nick Cohen of the Guardian calls it the "strangest election I've ever seen". Private Eye's Ian Hislop puts it a different way. What we are watching, he says, is an extremely "dull process".
He's right, but how has this happened? The prospect of a hung parliament (which I don't like) should nevertheless be a source of some excitement. But it's not. What's gone wrong?
04:10 Perhaps we will get a "Portillo moment" after all. Michael Crick (BBC) reports that Ed Balls is in danger of losing his seat. There could be a recount. Balls is talked about in some circles as a Labour leadership contender. I was going to go to bed but I may stay up for this.
03:57 Thanet North: CON GAIN. Defeat for the former Labour minister Stephen Ladyman who I once inadvertently called Stephen Ladyboy on 18 Doughty Street (the old Internet TV station). This resulted in several minutes of sustained corpsing as the presenter Iain Dale and I tried, unsuccessfully, to compose ourselves. Sadly the clip is no longer available online but I will always remember the name with fondness.
03:48 Bedford: CON GAIN. My son will be pleased. He has spent a good part of his work experience campaigning for Richard Fuller, the Conservative candidate in the neighbouring constituency of Bedford.
03:42 Harlow: CON GAIN. Congratulations to Robert Halfon who has attended several Forest events and spoken in defence of smokers. Robert's gain is Labour's loss.
03:32 Al Murray on the BBC boat: "We need something to happen."
03:26 Interesting that the Tories have done better in or around London. The Boris Johnson factor, perhaps? Apart from Miliband, I imagine that BJ is another politician who will have a smile on his face tonight. A good election for Boris, methinks!
03:20 David Miliband looking very happy. Smiling, relaxed. This is a man, in my view, revelling in the situation he/we now find ourselves in. He knows Brown is finished and he must be thinking that he could be leader of a Lib/Lab coalition, and therefore prime minister (if Labour's rules allow it), within days.
03:15 No sign of a "Portillo moment". Some people were hoping it might be Ed Balls but no sign of it at the moment. Disappointing.
03:07 Result just in from Edinburgh South West: LABOUR HOLD (Alistair Darling). I'm pleased for him. He has fought his corner and emerged with great dignity in recent months. One of the good guys.
03:05 David Dimbleby: "No sense of real drama." You're telling me. I'm not sure how much more of this I can take. I set myself the target of 4.00am but not sure if I can be bothered. Time for a cup of strong coffee.
02:58 Witney (David Cameron's seat), CON HOLD.
Good to see a Monster Raving Loony candidate in Witney. We had one standing in Huntingdon - Lord Toby Jug, he called himself.
02:43 Good news for Lib Dems, bad news for Tories: Eastleigh, LD HOLD; Somerton & Frome, LD HOLD. Both were top Tory targets. Meanwhile the Conservatives have lost Eastbourne which is a LD GAIN. Worse, the Tory candidate (and former MP) Nigel Waterson voted against the blanket smoking ban.
02:37 BBC: 125 seats declared and "no clear picture emerging". Not what I wanted to hear.
02:33 UKIP supporters are very quiet tonight. Where are you?
02:32 City of Chester: CON GAIN. The seat that Gyles Brandreth won (in 1992) and lost (in 1997) returns to Conservative hands.
02:28 Is anyone having a good evening? The Tories are going to be the biggest single party but anything less than a majority will be viewed as a failure. Oddly enough, Labour must be feeling quite positive as things stand.
02:26 Plaid Cymru said to be having a "disappointing" evening.
02:21 Montgomeryshire: CON GAIN. Lembit Opik loses his seat. Big victory for Tories - 13.2% swing from LD to Con. Sorry to lose Lembit. Attracts criticism but he's a genuine liberal who has been very supportive of Forest's position over the years.
02:19 Vale of Glamorgan: CON GAIN.
02:17 Eastbourne: CON HOLD. Disappointment for Lib Dems. Peter Kelner: "Clegg will be unhappy with this, and so will Brown." Clegg effect not working.
02:03 Exeter: LAB HOLD. Big result for Labour. Disappointment for Conservatives.
02:01 This should be exciting but it's not. Why? Do you get the feeling that all three parties are losers in this election?
01:58 Angus: SNP HOLD. Tories fail to win top Scottish target.
01:50 BBC: former Labour Home Secretary David Blunkett predicts overall majority for Conservatives. Labour have "lost", apparently.
01:45 I don't know about you but I need another drink.
01:41 Guildford: CON HOLD. Lib Dems making no inroads in seats they should win if they were doing really well. Guildford was their top target in the south.
01:32 Kircaldy & Cowdenbeath (Gordon Brown's seat): LAB HOLD.
01:30 Tooting (Tory target): LAB HOLD.
01:28 Ed Milliband on ITV: "We need stable government" blah blah blah. Coalition - stable?
01:23 Clear swing from Labour to Conservative throughout the country but substantial variations between and within different regions. Election could go to the wire.
01:14 Putney: CON HOLD. Delighted for Justine Greening, the Tories' youngest MP. Very impressed whenever I have seen her on TV. Swing from Lab to Con: 9.9%. If replicated across London, Tories could win a number of marginals.
01:10 Torbay: LD HOLD. Good news for us: LD MP Adrian Sanders favours amendment to smoking ban.
01:07 CON GAIN in Kingswood. Massive swing - 9.5%. Gordon Brown, you're taking a hell of a beating. Deal with the Lib Dems? Hopefully it won't be an option.
01:05 According to ITV, Gordon Brown says he is open to coalition with Lib Dems.
01:03 CON GAIN confirmed in Battersea. BBC and ITV still playing down prospect of Tory majority. I'm not so sure. If I was Cameron I would be quietly confident, especially with all the marginal seats to come.
01:00 Wales: PC GAIN. Good news for nationalists.
00:58 LABOUR HOLD in Darlington and Durham North but big swings to Con - 9.1% and 8.9%. Good news for Tories.
00:56 Thornbury & Yate (Yorkshire): LD HOLD but 4.3% swing from LD to Con. If replicated in South West could mean Tory gains. Potentially bad news for Lib Dems.
00:50 Belfast: ALLIANCE GAIN. Defeat for first minister Peter Robinson (DUP). Big story for Northern Ireland.
00:31 Speculation that the Greens have won Brighton Pavilion.
00:30 Have I miseed anything? Didn't think so.
00:28 Loo break.
00:26 Nick Robinson (BBC) says the Tories have tweeted that they have taken Battersea. If that is true, good result for Twitter.
00:22 Kenneth Clarke (our first smoker, albeit it not smoking): it would be a "travesty" if Gordon Brown allowed to carry on as prime minister.
00:10 Interviews with people who were not able to vote, despite making several attempts during normal voting times. Possibly a storm in a tea cup but some returning officers have a lot to answer for if these (and pictures) are true.
00:05 BBC debating who will govern in event of a hung parliament.
Thursday May 6, 2010
23:55 ITV has Piers Morgan ("friend of Brown") being interviewed alongside Alastair Campbell. Doesn't affect the election, but where's the balance? Agree, though, that ITV coverage is livelier than BBC. Haven't seen Sky yet. Laptop in one hand, glass of wine in the other, can't use remote control!
23:50 Listening to David Milliband, Peter Mandelson etc it is clear that Labour will do everything they can to hang on to power, with the help of the Lib Dems. If the final outcome is a hung parliament, this could get nasty.
23:40 Sunderland Central: LABOUR HOLD. Expected to be close but comfortable win for Labour: majority 6725. Hung parliament territory. No evidence of breakthrough for small parties.
23:39 Personally, I think the large swing to Tories in Sunderland is due to low Labour turnout in safe seat. But I think the national swing will be higher than the exit poll swing.
23:34 Mandelson spinning for "stable (ie Lib/Lab) government". Understandable but pathetic.
23:25 Washington and Sunderland West declares: LABOUR HOLD. Safe seat. Turnout 54% (up 7%). 11.6% swing to Conservatives from Labour. Encouraging for Tories. Repeated across the country it would be the largest swing since 1945. Interesting. Very interesting.
23:20 Interview with Esther Rantzen (Independent) in Luton South. Sorry, Esther, we're backing Tory candidate Nigel Huddlestone who's backing the Save Our Pubs & Clubs campaign. Watch this space.
23:17 I'm bored already! Is it just me?
23:10 Exit poll revised slightly: Con 305, Lab 255, Lib Dem 61, Others 29. Tories 21 short of a majority, according to this poll.
23:05 On basis of exit poll and Sunderland result, Lib Dems doing worse than in 2005. Bizarre.
23:00 Earlier this evening I received this email from Boris Johnson on behalf of the Conservatives:
This is it. As I write these words Gordon Brown should be teetering on the edge of the political oblivion he so richly deserves.
One shove, one nudge, one tiny prod in the right place - and we will at last be rid of this bankrupt embarrassment of a Labour government. Just one last push and this great country will be spared another five years of Gordon Brown.
We will avoid the drift and dither of a hung parliament. We will give a Conservative government the chance to offer dynamic and energetic government and by tomorrow morning we will begin the work of undoing the damage done by Labour.
Who is there left to administer this final judicious kick to the Labour Party's ample posterior?
If you have yet to vote - and you have five minutes to spare - I urge you and all your family and friends to get down to the polling station and play your part in history.
In an election this tight, your vote could be decisive. The boot's on your foot. For the good of our country - I urge you to use it.
Oh, if only Boris was leader of the Conservative party.
22:57 Northern Ireland: "Westminster's difficulty is Ulster's opportunity". The same could be said for Scotland and Wales. The Celtic fringe could dictate the outcome of this election. Yet again the English taxpayer could be the big loser.
22:52 Houghton & Sunderland South declares first: LABOUR HOLD with smaller majority (down 10%). Conservative second, up 5%. Turnout 55%.
22:50 More on voters being turned away at polling stations when they shut at 10.00pm. If people turn up late (ie 10.00pm or later) that's their fault. If people have been waiting up to an hour to vote, polling stations should stay open to allow them to vote. Who gives a damn if polling stations have to stay open a little later? Let people vote!
22:45 BBC exit poll suggesting 7% swing to Conservatives in England; 1% swing to Labour in Scotland and Wales. Devolution? Give them independence for all I care!
22:43 Fizz, Cobra and rhubarb crumble ice cream (from Waitrose). Delicious.
22:37 Alan Johnson: hung parliament territory not conceding defeat territory. No problem doing deal with Lib Dems. Can't see Lib Dems doing deal with Conservatives. Labour tactics now clear: emphasising what they have in common with Lib Dems with a view to creating a Lib/Lab coalition. Offering olive branch to Lib Dems: change to voting system.
22:30 High turnout, apparently.
22:26 My friend Peter Kelner from YouGov on the BBC. Blah, blah.
22:25 Sunderland Central: why the rush to be the first to declare, every time?!
22:15 Mixing my drinks - sparkling wine and Cobra beer. Different glasses, of course.
22:10 Who would you like to lose their seat? One politician I want to see the back of is Labour's Twitter "tsar", Kerry McCarthy (Bristol East). How about you?
22:05 Too early to say, says Harriet Harman. And she's right (for once). I still think the Tories will do well in marginal seats, and that could make all the difference.
22:00 BBC exit poll predicting hung parliament - Conservatives 307 seats, Labour 255, Lib Dem 59, Others 29. I've never been asked my opinion for a poll, ever. Have you?
21:54 I should add that this is not a Conservative blog. I know for a fact that at least one regular reader voted Lib Dem today, and another (I suspect) voted Labour. Several others voted UKIP.
Talking of which, best wishes to Nigel Farage. According to The Times, Nigel is "lucky to be alive" following his air crash today. Looking forward to the Buckingham result, although I expect The Speaker, John Bercow, to win comfortably. We'll see.
21:50 OK, here we go. As Labour's Tom Harris says on his blog today: "Fasten your seatbelts ... this could be a bumpy ride."
For the record, I voted Conservative not because I am a big fan of David Cameron but because I want to see the back of Gordon Brown and Labour. Oh, and because I've always voted Conservative and old habits die hard. A hung parliament doesn't do it for me. Consensus politics - ugh!
If you want to say who you voted for and why, feel free - but keep it short, please. No more than 100 words. Preferably less.
Reader Comments (31)
I voted Lib Dem for the first time in my life, as did many of my previously Labour-voting friends. If they've really only got 59 seats, then there is something very wrong with our electoral system, imho.
Tory... too many friends threatening an intention to go LD in my constituency for me to risk a UKIP vote. Head over heart.
Fizz AND Cobra?! Ewwww. Yes, Kerry McCarthy, obviously. And I'm hoping very much Philippa Stroud doesn't get in.
Voted Tactical (Lib dem) in Edinburgh North & Leith. Not sure that I believe in consensus politics either, looking at Scotland, but the need for a change of government and this was the best I could do to achieve it.
Morning everyone,, (I'll say that as I've had a nap) fingers crossed - lets hope we get enough free thinking new MPs (and Old Holborn) in to re-allow that basic right of a pint and a fag!
Yeah it's just you
Charming.
What channel is everyone watching? I'm flipping (channels not homes) and finding ITV most entertaining
Agree. Don't see the point of BBC party featuring the likes of Bruce Forsyth and Ben Kingsley. Love Brucie but he hasn't got a political bone in his body. So what's the point?
I've actually got 2 tvs going - sky and BBC - the BBC has traditionlly been slow in announcing results..
quite. Whereas John, Ann and Paddy all good value
Terrible pro-Labour bias on BBC R4... all info filtered and framed from the left's perspective.
This 10pm closing thing is starting to look like a real scandal. Just interviewing two people on sky who were trying to vote in Sheffield from 8 pm, queueing in rain, and never got to vote
No doubt the polling stations issue is going to dominate the headlines for weeks to come - especially in the marginals. This will be the story of this election.
ITV way ahead on results - are they watching a different election!
Ugh is that Bannatyne Cameron is cosying up to?
You're right, Simon, it all feels a bit depressing somehow. Think it might be time to climb the wooden stairs to Bedfordshire.
this is a bit dull - we need a load of new tory seats soon...
yes - sorry to see Lembit go.
4am.
We are now into that period where results are coming in thick and fast - almost all safe seats and nothing much to get excited about. But the results at this moment are Con 150 Lab 121. Traditionally, rural constituencies return later, and so one can expect the Con lead to increase.
Yes! The thieving,lying b*stards are out! Objective achieved! Hey up! Jackie Smith has just been ousted (4.35am)! Whoo! Hoo! Brilliant!
Is it now possible that sanity might return to our country? Let us hope so - but we must remember that this is only 'the end of the beginning'. It is not just about smoking, it is about the end of propaganda and social engineering, and the promotion of adult, individual freedom.
4.45am. Con 205. Lab 153.
Junican asks:
"Is it now possible that sanity might return to our country?"
With the distinct possibility of a Left/Centre-Left coalition in the offing ?
Nope - 'fraid not.
Another election within 15 months it is, then.
In the meantime, the country will have to stock up on pain-killers.
Once Reality kicks in - it's gonna hurt........
Winner of the Straight Face On A Brass Neck Award has to be Caroline Lucas - Britain's 'first Green MP' (get her on quickly, Jenni).
She thanked the voters of Brighton Pavilion for "putting the Politics of Hope above the Politics of Fear......................"
Absolutely, Caroline:
The Greens would never have ANY truck with the scare-mongering tactics of less reputable movements, would they ?
Voted Tory to get Labour out .
It worked in the constituency I live ,the incumbent Labour MP out.
His 1500 maj gone Tory majority 4000 .
Oh and he voted strongly for the BAN .
Good riddance .
Who are these morons who still vote Labour ?
Specky asks "Who are these morons who still vote Labour ?"
Scroll through the pages on this site Specky and you will find quite a few of them.
Not me they cry, I voted UKIP or I voted BNP or I voted Lib-Dem.
Where do they think their UKIPBNPLIB-DEM votes ended up then? I don't recall seeing any of these, with the possible exception of a few Libbers, getting any seats last night. Of course they bloodywell didn't. Anyone with any sense must have known that voting for any of these minority parties was just the same as putting your tick in the little red box of Labour.
So thank you one and all, for voting Labour, the party that gave us the smoking ban, which you are supposed to so passionate about overturning.
As I have been warning for at least the past year, we are now in big trouble, no matter which party forms the next Government, and I know who I blame.
We are in deep trouble Peter take a look at the electoral map.
Take a look at the polarisation of Labour and conservative constituences.
We have a two totally different countries on display here.
One the hard working tax paying Conservative constituences and the other the inner cities and underprivaleged areas .
There soon will not be enough tax to support the Labour vote anymore.
It's Greece here we come.
Only in Greece, their all Greeks.
That's why it will be worse here.
The Labour voter will not let go of nanny's skirts.
They are so helpless to the state now they have no confidence in themselves to change anymore.
That's why I voted Conservative it was the lesser of three evils ,Labour at least have lost their majority.
Cameron though not perfect was the last chance we had.
Polarisation ,yes that's the evil legacy of the failed Labour experiment.
We are heading for constitutional crisis ,I hope i'm wrong I really do.
Change will only come after a lot of pain and grief ,and it is coming.
A bankrupt nation cannot pay out to people who do not earn even if they want to.
"Change will only come after a lot of pain and grief ,and it is coming."
If only politicians were to display such honesty, Specky.
And a little mental clarity wouldn't come amiss, either......................
Voting Tory tactically worked here in Harrogate and Knaresborough. Overturned a very large Lib Dem majority and got Tory in by just over a thousand votes. Wish this could have happened in many many more places - and I also wish that the smaller parties had enjoyed some successes - just two or three for UKIP/BNP would have been a start. I feel very very depressed today and fear for the future. Thank goodness I've no kids etc. Today is a bleak day for democracy and civil liberties.
You took the words out of my mouth Jenny. Whatever does the future hold for this country now?
"Whatever does the future hold for this country now?"
A long prison sentence - and with little prospect of an early parole................
(It's what the inmates wanted, apparently).
(It's what the inmates wanted, apparently).says Martin.
I would agree with you 100% Martin, if we were talking about the inmates of Broadmoor or Rampton, but the inmates you mention, are "supposed" to be sane - balanced people....God help us!
Yes, may the good Lord help us - I agree with Peter and Martin above.
I hope they all keep their signs/boards nice and clean because I think the parliamentary candidates will be needing them again in the not too distant future. When the extent of the devastation caused by the government of the past 13+ years is really revealed, the doggie doo really will hit the fan. I've felt as though I've been living in some loonie bin/form of prison for quite a while now, but the 'inmates' now really do not understand exactly what they have voted for. We tried to let people know - yes, some of us have really tried hard to warn folks - but many (like their previous parliamentary representatives) have failed to listen. Oh dear, oh dear, oh dear.