Tories set for comfortable victory (unofficial)
Wednesday, April 7, 2010 Spoke to Madsen Pirie at last night's TNG event. Madsen is president of the Adam Smith Institute and someone I have known for 30 years. Never shy to voice an opinion, he told me that the Conservatives will win the election with a majority of 40-60 seats.
(I think it was 40-60. It could have been 14-16 but I'd had a few glasses of wine by then and it was quite noisy. Anyway, 40-60 sounds right. Who would risk humiliation by suggesting a majority with so little room for error?)
My own prediction, for what it's worth, is a Tory majority of between 20 and 40. This is based not on people wanting to vote for Cameron but on the fact that come May 6 a lot of people will wake up and think: "Do I really want Gordon Brown, waving and grinning like a demented Cheshire cat, at the door of No 10 tomorrow? Bye, bye, Gordon, it's time to go."
Or words to that effect.
Reader Comments (2)
Oddly enough,
I do not believe in polls either.
Madsen Pirie is correct. I predicted roughly the same figures on ConservativeHome last week. I think that by the time of the election, the Tories will have at the very least a clear 15 point lead.
You can't go far wrong in following the bookies in situations like this, and they still have the Conservatives as firm odds-on favourites and Labour something like 5 to 1 against.
The one thing that I wouldn't be surprised to see, is the Lib-Dems overtaking Labour into 2nd place on the day.