The honeymoon is over
Tuesday, June 19, 2007 
Our old friend Sue Brealey, co-author of the Joy of Smoking, was on BBC Breakfast this morning and did a great job refuting the alleged 'evidence' that passive smoking kills thousands of non-smokers every year.
Sue was a speaker - alongside David Hockney and Joe Jackson - at the fringe meeting organised by Forest at the 2005 Labour party conference (see HERE and HERE). She wrote the Joy of Smoking with the Daily Mirror's Sue Carroll (who spoke at the same event).
Sue got married 17 days ago and for the past two weeks has been on honeymoon - which makes her appearance this morning even more praiseworthy. And she's a non-smoker!
Simon Clark
I am pleased to say that Sue Brealey and her husband will be joining us at The Savoy on Monday. That makes 382 guests. A few more and the event will be sold out. The speed at which tickets have been snapped up has taken everyone by surprise. Ranald (MD of Boisdale) has organised hundreds of events. Today he told me he'd never seen anything like it.
Reader Comments (62)
I have now been on to the Forces website which is excellent - thanks, Colin. Also - Zitori - yes, I have listened to the Jackboot song this morning and it is really very good indeed. I think all kinds of art/music express people's feelings - a lot of the old folk music was pretty radical although a lot of people do not realise that. The power of images (on TV, drawings, cartoons, designs, posters, song, the written word etc.) - all are appealing to different people in different ways and are ways of communicating important messages. Having studied a lot of 20th century history, Bernie, I am able to hold my own in debates about national socialism and the rise of the NSDAP (Nationalsozialistische Deutsche Arbeiterpartei) and Hitler. The pc bloke the other night started asking me if I understood the philosophy of Nietsche - so I recounted lots of stuff I'd learned at uni very many years ago - he was quite taken aback!! I think he moved off because he knew I was more learned than him!! A lot of these pc people like to think they are really clever, when really they use the 'anti-smoking' doctrine to mask their own inadequacies and mediocrity. Anyway - as this government has made a mess of just about everything they have interfered with so far, I don't anticipate this being any exception to the usual flow of events!!
One of Nietzche's quotes always comes to my mind when I think of the anti-brigade. It is, of course, "Hell is other people".
Yes, Poppy - another slogan for a T-Shirt
"Hell - for us - is 'the antis'"
Like Luke - I would also like to know if there is anything else going on - only 9 days to go now - or do we have to walk meekly towards the nulab/libdem 'extermination camps' - unfortunately I am not feeling very bright today (as per the old Monty Python song).
There's not much we can do realistically. The real battle is between now and 2010 when the law gets reviewed. The ball is in our court, and what we must absolutely make sure of is that come 2010 that HMG doesn't just arbitrarily label the ban a success and plow on. How do we do that? Well, I'm not entirely sure, but one thing I would like to see happen is the formation of a register for pubs that go out of business - ideally with photographs so the true impact of the ban can be seen.
It's all very well saying; the pub trade saw a 10% drop in profit, but picture after picture after picture of boarded up pubs will speak volumes.
Rob; The register idea is a good one. We have a little over a week before the ban comes in. I suggest each of us gets out with a camera and takes pictures at local pubs before that happens. Lets get a photographic record of the numbers made up by smokers and non smokers inside pubs.
You might want to pop along to the CAMRA website before you start counting the numbers of pubs closing post-ban.
CAMRA say they are losing 56 "good" pubs per month now. (You will need a reference otherwise people (antis) will say they are closing due to poor management). The first to go to the wall are city centre wet led pubs. Those serving food do better in the short term. Next is the rural pubs (the ones CAMRA like, incidentally), and then the independently owned and operated pubs. The ones that do the best appear to be those atmosphere-free places. You know, the chains.
On a final note, be prepared to see almost nothing about these closures in the newspapers, ever. If you think there is a conspiracy now with the press, just give it a few months. You will learn to redefine the words "blind, deaf and dumb".
Colin, I've been aware of this "gag" for a while, not only of the press, but in every outlet. I moved to California in 1998 (came back late 99), just after the smoking ban came into effect there. Since then I've been trying to refute the "it's GOOD for business" line, but trying to get ANY info on pub closures post ban, even on the internet is difficult.
Yes, the standard "it's bad management line" gets tiresome which is why I;d like some solid figures.
Since the pro-choice movement in England is more prepared to fight the ban than elsewhere prior to now I;d like to see what we can really do.
As for pub closures, I can cover the Worcester area and be ready, camera in hand, to snap a shot of the boarded up front.
I'm HOPING the pub closures will bring the true impact of bans home to people and bring more rallying to our cause - we're going to need them if we're going to get this thing overturned.
I think it's also important to remember that it's likely going to be a conservative government then so getting support from that side of the house now might not be a bad idea.
If you listen to the antis, the war is over and we've lost. Imho, a ban is just the opening volley, now it's up to us to return fire.
Colin, can't find the CAMRA reference, but you're right - what we need is a frame of reference. Ideally, pub closures over the past 36 months, for a direct comparison for the next 36. In some American states the pub closure rate has quadrupled - which makes the bad management line ring somewhat hollow.
Perhaps Simon knows someone who has access to that kind of data.
Rob,
We have many publicans on The Big Debate so I will ask there too, and we can compare notes.
In Ireland they are closing at a rate of just over 1 per day. Pre-ban they had 7000 pubs. Today they have 5600. In March last year they announced that 1000 pubs had closed, and the Irish Vintners Association released a report that told us-- "just over one pub per day is closing in Ireland, forever. The closed city pubs are being converted into apartment blocks". I peg the Irish losses at around 1500 venues since their ban started. If we allow even 20% for the famous "poor management", that still leaves us with 1200 lost thanks to the smoker ban. Scotland still tends to be secretive about losses, and we estimate (dangerous, I know) about 200 closures in total in the first 15 months of the ban. 21 of these are bingo halls, the remainder are pubs, cafes, shisha cafes and private clubs. I do not know what the figures were pre-ban.
Took a bit of tracking down, but here it is:
http://www.camra.org.uk/page.aspx?o=232930
It doesn't make for happy reading. AND the ban hasn't even started yet!!
Rob and Colin; On bad management I'd go as far as saying that the antis are correct and that the pubs and clubs are closing due to bad management. The problem is that it is not their own bad management. Bad managers deserve to be thrown out. No politician or bureaucrat has any moral right putting other peoples' businesses at risk.