Smoking ban and pub closures
Monday, September 6, 2010 
The Morning Advertiser last week reported new research that suggests that the smoking ban is the main cause of pub closures. The news won't surprise readers of this blog but it ought to interest the many journalists and MPs who persist with the idea that the ban has had little or no impact on the pub trade.
The research was carried out by CR Consulting on behalf of the Save Our Pubs & Clubs campaign. You can download the four-page report HERE.
The full press release, including quotes, reads:
SMOKING BAN TO BLAME FOR PUB DECLINE, SAYS NEW RESEARCH
New research suggests that the smoking ban is the main cause of pub closures in the UK.
Using information from a respected industry database, researchers found that the number of pub losses demonstrate a very close statistical relationship between the introduction of smoking bans and the acceleration of the decline of the British pub.
This relationship, says the report, is considerably stronger than those that could be attributed to other factors such as the recession, alcohol duty or supermarket competition.
Researchers found a striking similarity in the rate of closures in Scotland, England and Wales following the introduction of smoking bans in each country.
Analysis of statistics from CGA Strategy showing the net figure of pubs closing revealed losses accelerating after the first year of the ban in each country — from between 0.5% and 1.2% in the first year to between 3.8% and 4.4% in the second year.
Almost three years after the introduction of smoking bans in the three countries, Scotland had lost 7.1% of its pub estate (467 pubs), Wales 7.3% (274), and England 7.6% (4,148). Scotland, which introduced a smoking ban a year earlier lost a further 4% of its pub estate in the fourth year after the ban, mirroring a similar decline in Ireland (11%) which banned smoking in pubs in 2004.
Total pub losses in England, Scotland and Wales since the introduction of smoking bans in all three countries are in excess of 5,500.
According to the report, which was commissioned by the Save Our Pubs & Clubs campaign, “While there is significant variation in the trajectories of pub closures in each country before the ban, there is an almost total correlation between the three countries after the ban.
“This indicates that they are affected by a strong common factor - the smoking ban. The correlation is in fact so close that the trend line for the three countries is identical.”
Oliver Griffiths, director of CR Consulting, said, “The decline of the British pub had started before the smoking ban but at a relatively low level. The smoking ban had a sudden and marked impact, accelerating the rate of decline.
“While it is not the only factor, the smoking ban is demonstrably the most significant cause of pub closures in recent years.”
Griffiths warned that further pub closures are inevitable. "In Scotland the smoking ban was introduced fifteen months before England and they have lost a further 4% of their pubs.
“If England continues to mirror that trend another 2000 pubs in England will shut down before the fourth anniversary of the ban in July 2011, and there is no indication that the closures will stop there."
Griffiths blamed the continuing decline on the loss of sociability in pubs.
“With smoking customers spending much of their time outside, some pubs may be becoming less sociable places, leading customers to question whether they want to drink there or at home.”
John Madden, executive officer of the Guild of Master Victuallers, said: "Traditional drink-led pubs have been caught in the crossfire in the war on smoking. As this report shows, the smoking ban has helped to put literally thousands out of business already and sadly we expect many more to follow, all through no fault of their own.
“Smoking rooms are allowed in most European countries, why can't we have them? They don't inconvenience non-smokers and may help us to keep our businesses going. Our pubs are part of the national character and a great place for people to meet and chat. At the time when we are supposed to be building a Big Society it just doesn't make sense to be forcing licensees out of business."
Simon Clark, director of the Save Our Pubs & Clubs campaign, said, “Politicians can bury their heads in the sand and pretend otherwise but there is no doubt that the smoking ban has had a devastating effect on a great many pubs.
“We were told that the ban would encourage a new wave of non-smoking customers but that hasn’t happened. Instead, many smokers have chosen to stay at home and a great many pubs have closed as a result.
“For the sake of our local communities, the Government must review the smoking ban. Options should include separate smoking rooms. “The Government should also relax the regulations on outdoor smoking shelters so that people can smoke outside in a warm and comfortable environment all year round.”
You can download the press release HERE.
We will be sending both documents to MPs and would encourage you to send copies to your own MP with a covering note inviting them to sign Brian Binley's Early Day Motion (EDM 406) which calls for a review of the smoking ban in pubs and clubs.
Simon Clark
Chris Snowdon has reviewed the report with his usual eye for detail. Chris also has the ability to write, concisely, in plain English. (See previous post.)
Reader Comments (72)
I do not belittle decent honest reports
I did not belittle this report…I belittle the context in which it is placed. If I go outside to my car and stand and look at it…then my car is little better than useless. UNTIL I interact with it!
So, this report however good and worthy, and I’m sure it is…is little better than useless…now wait for it…UNTIL IT IS ACTIVATED BY THE MAIN STREAM MEDIA…are we on the same page yet?
We know that Einstein produced great scientific papers based on his theories…but until they became of interest to the main stream media they were simply papers full of words…important words yes…but dormant words until activated.
I am talking about the context in which the report is placed until acted upon –not the content of the report itself.
I would never question the worthiness and effort involved in compiling a report, I have helped compile reports myself and I know how much effort is involved.
This report is a good and honest study validating what we always suspected – that was never in question!
Agreed and well said DavidR - as I said about your initial comment, I thought that you were simply articulating the frustration and anger we smokers feel about our complete lack of representation in the MSM, rather than criticising this report.
Not alone in my thoughts
Thanks Rick S - much appreciated.
I'm not a smoker and never have been but i must admit that this complete blanket ban is not right. I feel they should allow pubs and bars to apply for permission to be smoking or non smoking (so the council can make sure there are not too many of either on one area) and then make it up to the public to decide which they would like to go to.
This is not the same as a "smoking section" (which i totally disagree with in that the smoke still filters through the room) but rather the entire pub/venue is either smoking or not. While I am against smoking in general, I firmly believe that it should be a choice and not something that is forced.
What can we do if our own M.P. is in total agreement with amending the ban ?
Mine continually writes on my behalf to Andrew Lansley and all that is received back is the usual rubbish about how many lives the ban is saving.
Where do we turn to in this case of having a decent M.P. who's hands are 'tied'
The sort of thing I do
If anyone is interested.
Read drstevenjohnson's post on David Milliband's site. If it causes controversy...then I've done my job.
Read Belinda's comments...sorry Belinda.
From spending £400 per month in our local my wife and I are forced to spend £0 per month. We have no quality time together and England has become a desert. UK holidays and breaks are also out of the question. Train journeys, hotels , cafes all are now things of the past. mY wife has also stopped buying new clothes as there is no place to enjoy wearing them. What is wrong with seperate smoking rooms. If we do drop into a pub garden on a rare summers evening we are confronted with empty establishments devoid of conversation where those few punters remaining only come alive during their garden fag breaks. We are human and mortal with stresses and strains that the government needs to understand can only be alleviated by an English pub. Pubs are not health farms - please reinstate them for what they are.
All this debate about getting this report into the mainstream media ... wake up world, it need to be presented in a Court of Law and this will happen later this year in N Ireland when Chris Carter gets his Judicial Review of the Smoking Order 2006
Oh Dear.
I have just had a quick look at the Chris Carter case - it seems that his appeal concerns the court's refusal in his original trial to allow him to call the chief officers of Northern Ireland as witnesses. His original trial was concerned with smoking on local authority premises.
This case reminds me of the Nick Hogan and the Hewitt cases. On both these occasions, the 'offenders' set themselves up by making silly mistakes. I think that Carter smoking in a local authority place is of the same ilk - a bad error of judgement when it comes to contesting authority.
Is there any possibility of him winning? Maybe, but he would require a legal team of such exquisite skills as to be able to find a sufficiently authoritative precedent as to overturn the whole legality of the smoking ban - such as to force the gov to repeal it and substitute something else. Is that likely? I have my doubts.
Nevertheless, I wish him well.
As regards DavidR's posts, I can well understand his feelings of frustration. I think that we all feel the same. I think that his point is that that the study results somehow just get lost............and then, a few days later, there appears in the MSM some report from some physician or ASH or whoever, a statement that smokers are child abusers. That statement gets published far and wide, but the study showing that the smoking ban has closed thousands of pubs is ignored.
All that Forest can do is try their best - and I really think that Forest do a very good job, given their limited resources. The simple fact that the number of MPs who have signed the early-day motion is now 30 is a tribute to the persistence of those among us who are able to influence parliament, even if it is in a small way. 30 MPs is only about 5%, but 5% of MPs, in very general terms, is equivalent to some 2,500,000 voters. Even if there is no Early Day Motion, at least the representatives of some 2,500,000 voters have shown their concern about the ban.
ASH and co would say that this shows that the rest of the voters are in favour of the ban, But this is not true - it shows nothing at all.
But I have exhausted my word count.
Do not believe all that your read on the Chris Carter case as it is typical of Government controlled media, for once the Judiciary is onside with the defendant and has had to go through the motions to get to this stage. I should know having been involved in the case all the way over the past 3 years ... not sitting at a keyboard pontificating.
The case has now moved on from a simple Smoking Ban issue to that of the loss of soverignty of our nation, this in itself has rattled the Government who have sent their own barrister in to take over from the LA barrister.
The High Courts have now resumed after their 2 month recess and no doubt wil lcommence reviewing the latest batch of evidence submitted against HMG
I would add that Chris has had to repeatedly remind the Courts that he is the defendant not the prosecution as it is very clear that the Government case is very, very weak as the Smoking Order 2006 legislation was enacted without any political vote as the N Ireland Assembly had been disolved and had started an election campagn.
Anothe of Blair's lies as he sent a lackie to Buck Palace to have the papers quietly signed off.
Chris Carter will take this all the way himself, as he does not trust any lawyer to act in his best interest and has shown to date that he is perfectly capable of doing so while the prosecution continue to spend money to recover what was a £50.00 fine for smoking in what now appears to have been a legal part of the building as the sign was in the wrong position.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-11228475
... and another on:
http://breakingnews.heraldscotland.com/breaking-news/?mode=article&site=hs&id=N0086261283938594058A
These are mainstream media, right? I ask, because I don't know. I am from Denmark ;-)
Klaus .. yes thes are mainstream media now wakening up to the truth.
It looks like the media is only unwilling to report the results in England - not in Scotland.
What about Ireland? Maybe someone should send the report to this newspaper:
http://www.independent.ie/national-news/smoking-rate-soars-up-to-one-third-despite-ban-1923543.html
They have written a lot about smoking. Just a thought ...
This news continues to be told in Scotland
http://news.stv.tv/scotland/196288-700-pubs-closed-since-introduction-of-smoking-ban/
http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/198409/Review-smoking-ban-to-save-Scottish-pubs
Politicians just don't listen!
Here is a reply from Jeremy Hunt MP to my plea to an end to persecution.
Dear XXXX,
Thank you for your email. I am sorry that you feel persecuted by the smoking ban in public places. However the vast majority of pubs do provide smoking areas which whilst covered from the elements are in line with the ban. I believe that the Coalition government will look at the smoking ban particularly as a recent poll undertaken by the Department for Health found that 81% of people in the UK agree with the legislation.
Whilst I am aware that there were several calls from campaign groups to look at legislation banning smoking in cars I can confirm that the government has decided not to review in any way the Health Act 2006. In July Anne Milton announced that the Department of Health believed that the legislation was working and that there was no need to either expand it or repeal it.
Please do not hesitate to contact me if I can be of further assistance.
Best wishes,
Jeremy
Rt. Hon. Jeremy Hunt MP
Member of Parliament for South West Surrey
Secretary of State for Culture, Media and Sport
‘the Department for Health found that 81% of people in the UK agree with the legislation’. You don’t say!
Anyone remember this poll…isn’t this the one where the DOH asked quangos set up by the government to vote on the success of the smoking ban?
What would Smoke free Northwest reply to a poll about the smoking ban I wonder.
Latest from Scotland
http://f2cscotland.blogspot.com/2010/09/press-reports-abound-yesterday-and.html?spref=fb
also a date for the diary,
Thursday 7th October 2010 12.00 noon, Demonstration outside of the Scottish Parliament "They're Not Listening"
I have just read your latest email that quotes a report as saying "the smoking ban is the main cause of pub closures". My comment? To quote a well known philosopher who likes to drink: "Well - duh!". It does not require more than two brain cells for anybody to see the correlation. Unfortunately that does not appear to be the point of contention. When I emailed my MP about the recent Early Day Motion the somewhat patronising reply I got went along the lines of:
The overall health benefit far outweighs any consideration of lifting this ban.
In repeated surveys the majority of smokers are in favour of the ban as they think it will help them in their endevour to give up smoking.
Whilst the medical profession has the sort of influence it is now wielding they are more than happy to see the pub culture die as it not only stops us smokers it also acts as a block to the 'binge drinking' culture. And I don't know anything about these 'surveys' that are repeatedly quoted about smokers being in favour of the ban. I have never been asked!
The irony of all this is that with over 10 million smokers we would have enough voting power to bring in a pro-smoking party with an overall majority. But, for some reason, we can't get our act together sufficiently to even get the current ban modified. Let's face it we are going nowhere with this protest. Short of starting a fudamentalist movement involving anarchy and mayhem we are a doomed group. We are destined to die out...
Jim -
You know what REALLY gets me about all this moral posturing on the part of our leaders, and their lickspittle followers ?
That - for them - THE ultimate justification is the Need To Save Lives.
At ANY cost to personal enjoyment, personal freedom, personal job security.
And yet these are the very SAME people (with some noble exceptions) who supported the UN Sanctions War against the Iraqi People - who had never done us ANY harm whatsoever.
Result ?
Over 1.2 MILLION deaths among under-5 year old infants ALONE between 1990 and 2003 (according to some very reliable reports).
I wonder how many grieving Iraqi mothers - given the choice - would not have preferred the 'danger' of a wisp of cigarette smoke to that of irradiated dust (everywhere), and the denial of cancer-fighting drugs to their children ?
I love my country, but I'm ASHAMED to belong to a system that can so easily countenance such high-handed ethical duplicity.
Truly ashamed.
People deserve better............................................
"Rt. Hon. Jeremy Hunt MP"
What a rhymingly PERFECT name for the man - who probably never even read your letter, David - and who therefore probably never drafted the 'reply'.
Which, of course, is the the point of 'assistants'.
MPs have something better to do than think...............................
I would love to know who is behind this smoking ban?. over the past few years, we appear to be in the hands of small groups of control freaks. When on the few occasions, that I have visited any licensed premises, I have as all smokers, had to leave the company of friends, to go out for a cigarette, I have been amazed at how many non smokers stand outside with us, and after speaking to them find that they are just as upset as smokers, that a catch up in our local, is no longer enjoyable, and that even non smokers are not happy with the ban.I think that it should still be restricted in restaurants. but a covered & comfortable shelter or room, seperate to where people are eating, would be nice. On the down side, I feel that some smokers are very inconsiderate, when the few places that have tried to accommodate us, have provided ashtrays, seats, and some with heaters, smokers still throw dimps or butts on the floor, or would prefer to stand in doorways, giving the non-smoking brigade more ammunition. Everywhere we look its food, how long I wonder before another ban will be introduced, to stop us eating, I feel that I am living under a Quaker or Muslim law. Where has the Great out of great britain gone.